Table of Contents

Contents

Introduction
Part I: The Science
1. What We Know About Warming
2. Humble Human Influences
3. Emissions Explained and Extrapolated
4. Many Muddled Models
5. Hyping the Heat
6. Tempest Terrors
7. Precipitation Perils—From Floods to Fires
8. Sea Level Scares
9. Apocalypses That Ain’t
10. Who Broke “The Science” and Why
11. Fixing the Broken Science
Part II: The Response
12. The Chimera of Carbon-Free
13. Could the US Catch the Chimera?
14. Plans B
Closing Thoughts
Endnotes
Acknowledgments
Index

About the Author

Dr. Steven E. Koonin is a leader in science policy in the United States. He served as Undersecretary for Science in the US Department of Energy under President Obama, where he was the lead author of the Department's Strategic Plan and the inaugural Quadrennial Technology Review (2011). With more than 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics and astrophysics, scientific computation, energy technology and policy, and climate science, Dr. Koonin was a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech, also serving as Caltech's Vice President and Provost for almost a decade. He is currently a University Professor at New York University, with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics. Dr. Koonin's memberships include US National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the JASON group of scientists who solve technical problems for the US government. Since 2014, he has been a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analyses and chaired the National Academies' Divisional Committee for Engineering and Physical Sciences from 2014-2019. He is currently an independent governor of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and has served in similar roles for the Los Alamos, Sandia, Brookhaven, and Argonne National Laboratories.

Reviews

“The book is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity. And, as Mr. Koonin makes clear, few areas of science are as complex and multidisciplinary as the planet’s climate.”
—Wall Street Journal

"Unsettled teaches that we need to follow scientific knowledge as it develops, and carefully to consider the costs and benefits of different alternatives."
—Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Forbes

"Koonin . . . is an authority, in the best academic sense of the word . . . Unsettled will be a mainstay of reference sections in heterodox critiques of the climate-catastrophe-industrial complex for years to come."
—Commentary

“We have too many global warming books—but this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.”
—Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

“Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits.”
—William W. Hogan, professor of Global Energy Policy at Harvard Kennedy School

“Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientist—and a vision of what will actually come to pass.”
—Robert B. Laughlin, Stanford University

“Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible.”
—Bjorn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

"In a carefully researched and insightful book, Steven Koonin highlights the significant uncertainty underlying climate models and statistics, the limits of technical and political responses, and the need to reassert the core values of scientific independence and integrity that drive social progress."
—William van Wijngaarden, The Journal of the Witherspoon Institute and professor of physics at York University

“The most important book on climate science in decades.”
—Rupert Darwall, RealClearPolitics

“Fascinating and informative reading, and one hopes it will improve the climate for honest and open discussion.”
—Jonathan Tennenbaum, Asia Times

"Koonin takes his fellow scientists to task for withholding the information he presents in this book. Ironically, most of the data he reports comes directly from the very reports that are used to exaggerate the problems we face. This scientific malpractice seems mainly driven by self-interest . . . Because of this, it is time confront the true climate deniers."
—Robert M. Whaples, The Independent Review

“Koonin takes deliberate, explicit care to write dispassionately and factually . . . This book should be read by every journalist, pundit, and environmental activist, and by all politicians, policymakers, as well as their staffs.”
—Henry Bauer, Journal of Scientific Exploration

“Unsettled is an excellent case study on climate science, its inherent complexity and uncertainty, and a cautionary tale on how interpretive filters in the policymaking process have shaped, and sometimes misinformed, the climate policy debate. It should on be the reading list of scientists and engineers whose responsibility, as citizens, extends beyond the laboratory to communicating to a larger public often overwhelmed and confused by the media. Policymakers and politicians will find it a source of reflection for their arguments, positions, and decisions.”
—Jean-Lou Chameau, President Emeritus, Caltech