Preface; Introduction; Part I. Probability in Action: 1. Probability questions; 2. The law of large numbers and simulation; 3. Probabilities in everyday life; 4. Rare events and lotteries; 5. Probability and statistics; 6. Chance trees and Bayes' rule; Part II. Essentials of Probability: 7. Foundations of probability theory; 8. Conditional probability and Bayes; 9. Basic rules for discrete random variables; 10. Continuous random variables; 11. Jointly distributed random variables; 12. Multivariate normal distribution; 13. Conditioning by random variables; 14. Generating functions; 15. Discrete-time Markov chains; 16. Continuous-time Markov chains; Appendix; Counting methods and ex; Recommended reading; Answers to odd-numbered problems; Bibliography; Index.
Using everyday examples to demystify probability, this classic is now in its third edition with new chapters, exercises and examples.
Henk Tijms is Emeritus Professor at Vrije University in Amsterdam. He is the author of several textbooks and numerous papers on applied probability and stochastic optimization. In 2008 Henk Tijms received the prestigious INFORMS Expository Writing Award for his publications and books.
'Henk Tijms - famous for his clear and profound work in applied
probability - brings us another jewel. His book Understanding
Probability combines outstanding pedagogy and thought provoking
exercises to produce the best introductory text on the market.'
Wayne Winston, Indiana University, Bloomington
'This book distinguishes itself with its down-to-earth style. Covering a wide range of topics from probability, it is filled with real-world fun examples that vividly illustrate sophisticated theory with simplicity. This new expanded edition could now serve as an excellent introductory textbook on probability theory at the undergraduate and masters level.' Karl Sigman, Columbia University