Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview
1.1 Our Vision
1.2 Two Types of Thinking
1.3 Dealing with Bias
1.4 The Role of Structured Analytic Techniques
1.5 The Value of Team Analysis
1.6 The History of Structured Analytic Techniques
1.7 Selection of Techniques for This Book
1.8 Quick Summary of Chapters
Chapter 2: Building a System 2 Taxonomy
2.1 Taxonomy of System 2 Methods
2.2 Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques
Chapter 3: Choosing the Right Technique
3.1 Core Techniques
3.2 Five Habits Every Analyst Should Master
3.3 One Project, Multiple Techniques
3.4 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques
3.5 Structured Technique Selection Guide
Chapter 4: Decomposition and Visualization
4.1 Getting Started Checklist
4.2 AIMS (Audience, Issue, Message, Storyline)
4.3 Customer Checklist
4.4 Issue Redefinition
4.5 Chronologies and Timelines
4.6 Sorting
4.7 Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing
4.8 Matrices
4.9 Venn Analysis
4.10 Network Analysis
4.11 Mind Maps and Concept Maps
4.12 Process Maps and Gantt Charts
Chapter 5: Idea Generation
5.1 Structured Brainstorming
5.2 Virtual Brainstorming
5.3 Nominal Group Technique
5.4 Starbursting
5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix
5.6 Morphological Analysis
5.7 Quadrant Crunching™
Chapter 6: Scenarios and Indicators
6.1 Scenarios Analysis
6.2 Indicators
6.3 Indicators Validation
Chapter 7: Hypothesis Generation and Testing
7.1 Hypothesis Generation
7.2 Diagnostic Reasoning
7.3 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
7.4 Argument Mapping
7.5 Deception Detection
Chapter 8: Assessment of Cause and Effect
8.1 Key Assumptions Check
8.2 Structured Analogies
8.3 Role Playing
8.4 Red Hat Analysis
8.5 Outside-In Thinking
Chapter 9: Challenge Analysis
9.1 Premortem Analysis
9.2 Structured Self-Critique
9.3 What If? Analysis
9.4 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
9.5 Devil’s Advocacy
9.6 Red Team Analysis
9.7 Delphi Method
Chapter 10: Conflict Management
10.1 Adversarial Collaboration
10.2 Structured Debate
Chapter 11: Decision Support
11.1 Decision Trees
11.2 Decision Matrix
11.3 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
11.4 Force Field Analysis
11.5 SWOT Analysis
11.6 Impact Matrix
11.7 Complexity Manager
Chapter 12: Practitioner’s Guide to Collaboration
12.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams
12.2 Dividing the Work
12.3 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups
12.4 Benefiting from Diversity
12.5 Advocacy vs. Objective Inquiry
12.6 Leadership and Training
Chapter 13: Validation of Structured Analytic Techniques
13.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis
13.2 Establishing Face Validity
13.3 A Program for Empirical Validation
13.4 Recommended Research Program
Chapter 14: The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques
14.1 Structuring the Data
14.2 Key Drivers
14.3 Imagining the Future: 2020
Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of
Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding
automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique.
Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts
throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of
academic programs on intelligence or national security. After
retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer was
associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for
more than five decades until his death in August 2018. He has
written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence,
deception, and intelligence analysis. Mr. Heuer has a B.A. in
philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international
relations from the University of Southern California. He also
pursued graduate studies at the University of California at
Berkeley and the University of Michigan.
Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of
Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum
Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic
techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the
government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with
Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of
Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques
for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated
in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored
Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs
Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic
Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other
guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing
the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year
career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as
National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously
at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence
analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin
America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of
the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the
recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service
as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson
received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in
international relations from Yale University.
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