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Power Markets and Economics


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Table of Contents

Contents Foreword Preface Part One Industry Infrastructure Chapter 1 Approach to Restructuring 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Industry Physical Structure 1.3 Introduction of Competition 1.4 Restructuring Options 1.5 Comparison of Structures 1.6 Summary Chapter 2 Market Mechanisms 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Market Participants 2.3 Market Mechanisms 2.4 Market Implementation 2.5 Price Analysis 2.6 Summary Part Two The Cost Chain Chapter 3 Basic Generation Energy Costs 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Cost Components 3.3 Practical Operating Efficiencies 3.4 Impact of Utilisation on Costs 3.5 Comparison of Generation Costs 3.6 International Comparisons 3.7 Summary Chapter 4 Alternative Energy Sources 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Competing Sources 4.3 Current Production Europe 4.4 Incentive Schemes 4.5 Market Pricing 4.6 The Economics of Alternative Sources 4.7 Comparisons 4.8 Summary Chapter 5 Emissions 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) 5.3 Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) 5.4 Generation CO2 Emissions 5.5 Production Costs 5.6 National Allocation Plans 5.7 Market Operation 5.8 Impact of Capacity Mix 5.9 International Approach 5.10 Summary Chapter 6 Transmission 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Impact of Transmission Constraints in Markets 6.3 Transmission Charging 6.4 Derivation of Use of System Charges 6.5 International Tariff Comparisons 6.6 Transmission Investment 6.7 Interconnection Investment Appraisal 6.8 International Practice 6.9 Summary Chapter 7 Distribution 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Market Status 7.3 Commercial Arrangements 7.4 Metering and Balancing 7.5 Cost of Distribution 7.6 Distribution Tariffs 7.7 OPEX Regulation 7.8 Capex Regulation 7.9 Business Risk 7.10 Distributed Generation 7.11 Summary Chapter 8 End User Charges and Prices 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Price Comparisons 8.3 End user Energy Prices 8.4 Total End User Prices 8.5 Tariff Development 8.6 Customer Switching 8.7 Summary Part Three Market Operation Chapter 9 Market Trading 9.1 Introduction 9.2 European Markets 9.3 Developing Markets ? China 9.4 Market Power 9.5 Trading Arrangements 9.6 Bilateral Trading 9.7 Balancing Market 9.8 Exchange Trading 9.9 Supplier Risk 9.10 Generation Risk 9.11 Market Interaction 9.12 Arbitrage Spark Spread 9.13 Summary Chapter 10 Market Analysis 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Modelling Overview 10.3 Dispatch Market Simulation 10.4 Load Duration Model 10.5 Hydro Generation 10.6 Interconnection Modelling 10.7 Predicting Demand Data 10.8 Generation data 10.9 Calculations 10.10 Price Duration Curve 10.11 Statistical Forecasting 10.12 Predicting New Entry 10.13 Summary Chapter 11 Ancillary Service Markets 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Ancillary Service Requirements 11.3 Market Volume 11.4 Procurement Process 11.5 Cost of Providing Services 11.6 Predicting Revenues 11.7 Summary Chapter 12 Cross-border Trading 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Governance 12.3 Cross-border Capacity 12.4 New Investment 12.5 Managing Operation 12.6 Capacity Auctions 12.7 Security 12.8 Charging for Wheeling 12.9 International Trading Development 12.10 Summary Chapter 13 Investment Appraisal 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Overall Analysis 13.3 Analysis of Options 13.4 Plant Costs 13.5 Predicting Revenue 13.6 Bidding/Contracting Strategy 13.7 Evaluating Risk 13.8 Summary Part Four Market Development Chapter 14 Market Performance 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Performance Criteria 14.3 Market Shortcomings 14.4 Performance Assessment 14.5 Performance Improvement 14.6 Summary Chapter 15 Market Developments 15.1 Introduction 15.2 Generation Developments 15.3 Future Plant Mix 15.4 Transmission and Distribution Grids 15.5 Carbon Capture and Storage 15.6 Market Implications 15.7 Summary Chapter 16 Long-term Scenarios 16.1 Introduction 16.2 Emissions 16.3 Alternative Energy Sources 16.4 The Nuclear Option 16.5 Fuel Prices 16.6 Fuel Supply Security 16.7 System Security 16.8 Clean Coal Technology 16.9 Network Developments 16.10 International Commodity and Freight Markets 16.11 Competition 16.12 Conclusions Glossary References Appendix Conversion Tables Index

About the Author

From the author: I have specialised in power system development and economics for the last 40 years having worked for a distribution company and as a senior manager with a generator (CEGB), a transmission company (NGC) and a manufacturer (ABB). Prior to liberalisation I worked on the development of algorithms to optimise system planning and operation which led to my playing a lead role in the restructuring of the UK power sector in 1990. In 1998 I set up as an independent consultant with a company called ?Electricity Market Services Ltd? and published a book on early experiences with Wiley called ?Electricity Markets?. Since then I have worked on projects throughout the world. I have advised government agencies and regulators in Belgium, the UK, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Oman, Namibia and Abu Dhabi. I have analysed markets for clients covering the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Greece, Turkey, Scandinavia, the Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan, Botswana and Mozambique. I have also undertaken assignments in the US, Trinidad and Tobago and Singapore, for banks in Europe, the World Bank and for oil and gas companies. This new book is based on the experience and understanding gained from this wide spectrum of assignments and international experience. It shows how power costs can be calculated and compares those from conventional sources with renewable and other alternatives. It also includes detailed calculations of distribution and transmission charges showing the makeup of end user charges and the impact of emission restrictions. Part three discusses the operation of markets and how they may be analysed while part four speculates on future developments. I was encouraged to write the book and record my understanding and experiences by universities and others who recognised the shortage of books in this area. I have included worked examples and endeavoured to keep abreast of the latest developments. The industry continues to face new challenges and it remains to be seen how well the market structures put in place will be able to deal with them. I originally trained as a power systems engineer with a first in Electrical Engineering. I subsequently took a Diploma in management Studies and completed a PhD in electricity markets. I am a fellow of the IEE, a senior member of the American IEEE and a member of the British Institute of Management.


"Murray's overview of the link between engineering and economics in the energy sector provides a timely look at the big challenge for the global power industry ... .[It] provides a sound bases for anyone involved in the wider debate on how the market should be shaped." (Engineering and Technology , May 2009)

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