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Investing with the Trend


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Table of Contents

Foreword ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xv Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Part I: Market Fiction, Flaws, and Facts 13 Chapter 2 Fictions Told to Investors 15 Chapter 3 Flaws in Modern Financial Theory 27 Chapter 4 Misuse of Statistics and Other Controversial Practices 51 Chapter 5 The Illusion of Forecasting 57 Chapter 6 The Enemy in the Mirror 71 Chapter 7 Market Facts: Bull and Bear Markets 83 Chapter 8 Market Facts: Valuations, Returns, and Distributions 113 Part II: Market Research 139 Chapter 9 Why Technical Analysis? 141 Chapter 10 Market Trend Analysis 159 Chapter 11 Drawdown Analysis 231 Part III: Rules-Based Money Management 267 Chapter 12 Popular Indicators and Their Uses 269 Chapter 13 Measuring the Market 281 Chapter 14 Security Ranking, Selection, Rules, and Guidelines 319 Chapter 15 Putting It All Together: The ?Dancing with the Trend? Model 355 Chapter 16 Putting Trend-Following to Work 391 Chapter 17 Conclusions 399 Appendix A: Passive versus Active Management 409 Appendix B: Trend Analysis Tables 413 Appendix C: Market Breadth 445 Appendix D: Recommended Reading 457 Bibliography 459 About the Author 467 About the Online Resources 469 Index 471

About the Author

Gregory L. Morris is Chairman of the Investment Committeefor Stadion Money Management, LLC, which manages approximately $5.4billion, and their Chief Technical Analyst. Prior to this role,Morris served as a trustee and advisor to the MurphyMorris ETF Fundand as treasurer and chief executive officer of MurphyMorris MoneyManagement Co. and He has been a technical marketanalyst for over forty years, ranging from analysis softwaredevelopment and website analysis and education to money management.Morris is the author of two books, Candlestick ChartingExplained and The Complete Guide to Market BreadthIndicators. He has appeared frequently on financial news shows,has lectured on technical analysis worldwide, and has been featuredin major magazines. Morris was a U.S. Navy fighter pilot, is agraduate of the Navy Fighter Weapons "Top Gun" School, and holds adegree in aerospace engineering from the University of Texas.


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