Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary Part I. Global Drivers of Growth 2. Population and Human Capital 3. Capital and Capital Markets 4. Globalization 5. Technology and Innovation 6. Natural Resources: Energy and Metals Part II. Economic Growth and Prosperity in 2030 7. The State of the Global Economy in 2030 8. The Impact of Growth on Affluence and Poverty 9. The Impact of Growth on Climate Change Part III. The EU's Transition Towards 2030 10. The Outcome of the Nemesis Model: Introduction 11. Europe as Whole 12. A More Detailed Approach 13. The Consequence of Higher Productivity Gains 14. Conclusions Part IV. Policy Challenges and Game Changers for the EU 15. A Smaller EU in the World Economy 16. Facing an Ageing World 17. The EU Needs to Focus Its Trade Policy 18. Centrifugal Forces in Europe 19. Climate Change Challenge 20. Demographic Cooling Down in the Euro-Mediterranean 21. Is the World Economy Becoming Less Democratic? 22. A Global Game Changer from China 23. The Economic Emergence of Sub-Saharan Africa 24. Hydraulic Fracking

About the Author

Daniel Gros is the director of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS). Cinzia Alcidi is LUISS Fellow at CEPS in Brussels.