Table of Contents

1: Introduction to Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches 1: Concepts for Biosecurity Surveillance 2: Biosecurity Surveillance in Agriculture and Environment: a Review 3: Getting the Story Straight: Laying the Foundations for Statistical Evaluation of the Performance of Surveillance 4: Hierarchical Models for Evaluating Surveillance Strategies: Diversity Within a Common Modular Structure 5: The Relationship Between Biosecurity Surveillance and Risk Analysis 6: Designing Surveillance for Emergency Response 2: Information for Biosecurity Surveillance 7: The Role of Surveillance in Evaluating and Comparing International Quarantine Systems 8: Estimating Detection Rates and Probabilities 9: Ad hoc Solutions to Estimating Pathway Non-compliance Rates Using Imperfect and Incomplete Information 10: Surveillance for Soilborne Microbial Biocontrol Agents and Plant Pathogens 11: Design of a Surveillance System for Non-indigenous Species on Barrow Island: Plants Case Study 12: Towards Reliable Mapping of Biosecurity Risk: Incorporating Uncertainty and Decision Makers’ Risk Aversion 13: Detection Survey Design for Decision Making During Biosecurity Incursions 3: Statistical Modelling Methods for Designing Biosecurity Surveillance 14: Inference and Prediction with Individual-based Stochastic Models of Epidemics 15: Evidence of Absence for Invasive Species: Roles for Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches in Regulation 16: Using Bayesian Networks to Model Surveillance in Complex Plant and Animal Health Systems 17: Statistical Emulators of Simulation Models to Inform Surveillance and Response to New Biological Invasions 18: Animal, Vegetable, or … ? A Case Study in Using Animal-health Monitoring Design Tools to Solve a Plant-health Surveillance Problem 19: Agent-based Bayesian Spread Model Applied to Red Imported Fire Ants in Brisbane Appendix: Common Statistical Distributions Used in Statistical Modelling and Analysis for Biosecurity Surveillance

About the Author

Frith Jarrad, Sama Low Choy and Kerrie Mengersen, all Queensland University of Technology, Australia