About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Dan Gardner is a journalist and the author of Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear and Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best.